Marine Le Pen heeft de wind in de zeilen. De socialisten hebben een onverkiesbare kandidaat aangeduid, de stank van corruptie hangt over de Republikeinen en Emmanuel Macron, een 'pro-Europese globalist', heeft geen achterban en geen ervaring. Dat schrijft Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in de Telegraph. Hij maakt ook een inschatting over wat een 'Frexit' zou betekenen.
'It is far from clear that France would suffer the sort of ferocious devaluation that some suppose, or would be forced into debt restructuring. The country is more or less in the 'middle' of the EMU system. The new franc would rise against the lira, the escudo, the drachma, and so forth, but would fall against the D-Mark bloc.
The external euro debt contracts of French firms - mostly hedged by external assets in any case - might not change much viz a viz a 'synthetic' post break-up euro. Two-thirds of France's €2 trillion public debt is owned by foreigners. Markets would clearly act pre-emptively on any sign that French opinion polls were tightening, although the European Central Bank could contain that through the elections. The risk spread of French 10-year bonds over German Bunds is rising.
It is Germany and its northern satellites that wouldhave to deal with a violent revaluation shock, you might say the delayed retribution for their chronic current account surpluses within monetary union.'